GDP, TRADE, UNEMPLOYMENT AND UPCOMING RECESSION

The U.S-China Trade dispute; a review

The present rigidity between U.S. and china trace back to numerous events that happen prior. However, its significance got consideration when U.S. president, Donald Trump threatened China while enforcing tariffs on Chinese exports. The president also alleged China for its unfair trade practices in July 2018. Over the 2 years that have passed, the two countries have been involved in numerous back-and-forth dialogues, a tit-for-tat tariff dispute. Both economics familiarized foreign technology limitations, battled numerous WTO cases which subsequently led to the trade dispute between the two countries. So far, the US has enforced tariffs on US$550 billion worth of Chinese exports. China, in retaliation, has set tariffs on US$185 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Trade dispute and output growth

Gross Domestic Product, GDP is the most usual measure of accounting the growth of the country. It is predicted that after determining the trade quarrel between the U.S. and China real GDP will be raised at the rate of 2 percent to 3 percent. The structure of GDP growth exhibits that real estate is the major constituent of GPD (13.4%), followed by professional and business services (12.8%), government (12.3%), and manufacturing (11.0%). Retail, auto dealers and non-store retails were the slightest donors to GPD.

The present situation will be intensively dissimilar, particularly in 2Q 2020, then in then 2Q 2019. There are numerous causes behind this postulation. The first and foremost cause for output collapse is the ineptitude of trade treaty between the U.S. and China. Though both economies partially agreed to waived-off tariffs enforced on bilateral trade by either side. However, the pact between the two countries is not yet materialized due to lethal COVID-19 outburst. The VOCID-19 that was originated in China in late 2019 is now diffusion all over the world. Due to COVID-19 fears, the country’s borders is been lockdown by the authorities in order to prevent further diffusion of COVID-19.

The spreading of COVID-19, particularly to the U.S. and UK, after disrupting China long-lasting economic growth and now targeting their balances. Since mid-February of the current period the world stocks markets have been contracted by 20 percent to 30 percent. Output has been anticipating deterioration due to COVID-19 terror among the masses and cross-border limitations. Travel, Transportation and tourism are the most interrupted sector, particularly among countries.

Output Decline and Unemployment

The unemployment rate in the prior period was the lowest at 3.5 percent. This was 50-years old lower rate though it has been seen in September 2019. The workforce rose slightly while Labor force participation rate inched above 63 percent. The economy was having over 2 million more jobs in 2019 as compared to 2018. Healthcare was the major donor, engaging over 20 million people, shadowed by the leisure and hospitality sector and professional and business services sector. Manufacturing and mining both lost 31,000 and 9,000 jobs respectively in 2019.

As by march, 2020, the current economic situation is not looking robust. The COVID-19 down U.S. economy as well as the global economies. Around the world, major cities were lockdown due to COVID-19 fears. Global demand was shrunk in the first 2 months of the current period. Consumer spending weakened and forestalling the further drop in the upcoming months. As the world economy is approaching the upcoming recession, the unemployment fears among the workers touching height. The uncertainty among the workers required accurate and timely true information regarding their job.  “LaborAlert” a smartphone-based application, developed by Kiwi Application-LLC (play store URL: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.labouralerts and app store URL:  https://apps.apple.com/us/app/labor-alerts/id1113045391) provides such information to its user, prior to 60 days during any layoffs, plant closure, or complete shutdown. 

Labor Alerts also provides filtered statistics for companies in a given State. This tool helps the user analyze layoff data from the past and follow trends as well as forecast how the employment situation may change in the future.

To summarize, the LaborAlerts application allows you to:

  • Create company layoff alerts by simply searching for the company and tapping on their “bell” symbol.
  • See what companies or states are the largest affected by the layoffs or closings
  • Share through social media or text.

To get started, the application need only be installed and asks for no personal data on the user. Although the application is free to use, the following subscription criteria makes for several options to suit your needs.

Download LaborAlerts on the App Store

Download LaborAlerts on the Google Play Store

Sync your devices such as your phone, and tablet to have easy access to your account and the information on the application.